By Redson Kandozi
Malawi is facing another year of drought and food insecurity, as the El Nino phenomenon has reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells in some parts of the country.
The El Nino, which is characterized by unusual warming of waters in the Eastern Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically leads to drier conditions over Southern Africa, potentially including southern Malawi.
These conditions have wiped out crops in most southern districts like Chikwawa, Machinga, Balaka, Zomba, as well as Blantyre, leaving a lot of farmers in despair, desperately looking for a savior as they have no hope of having any harvest this year.
Speaking to Mathar Magombera, a farmer from Chileka Blantyre, she said these dry conditions are scary as there is no hope of harvesting maize.
Maize dying in the fields
She highlighted that amidst this drought, Malawians should expect malnutrition related diseases as people will lack adequate food to sustain their bodies. Magombera also shared that this will affect development in local communities since development work needs people who are healthy.
“At this point I think this problem is of our own making since we have destroyed the environment by cutting down trees. With these unpredictable weather patterns, it is difficult to know what will come out of this year. I think in the short term, farmers should grow cassava and sweet potatoes and those who can manage, should switch to irrigation farming” she added.
Magombera also hinted that the government should provide fertilizer, especially to those farmers who are planning to replant their maize and that in the long-term farmers should embrace mixed farming where they can plant drought tolerant crops like sorghum as a substitute where the maize has not done well.
In September 2023, the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) issued a seasonal forecast for the 2023/2024 rainfall season, expected to run from October to April.
According to the forecast, most areas of the country were expected to receive normal total rainfall amounts, but with a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall in November, particularly in southern and northern Malawi.
The forecast also warned that from January to March 2024, Malawians were to receive normal to below-normal total rainfall amounts over most areas, with a possibility of above-normal rainfall in January.
However, the chance of prolonged dry spells in February was predicted to be high, which could affect the crop production and food security of millions of farmers.
The DCCMS Director, Lucy Mtilatila, said that the forecast was based on global climate models and historical data, and that the agency was collaborating with regional and international partners to monitor the situation.
According to a research by Centre for Agricultural Research and Development (CARD) under Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR), the 2023-24 El Nino will drop maize production by 561,574 metric tons, leading to under supply of food demanded by 466, 526 metric tons representing a 16.85% decline in maize yield if no climate resilient adaptive measures are not taken.
In 2015-16 season, as reported by the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), 6.5 million people representing 39% of the population were at risk of food insecurity due to the same El Nino. However according to the recent report by CARD, the country should expect at least 14% of the population becoming food insecure in 2024.
Even though the percentage may look small as compared to that of 2015-16 season, the consequences of this year’s El Nino might be grave as it is hitting at a time the country has been affected by Covid-19 and several tropical cyclones, and also with high level of foreign currency shortage, making importation of food and inputs challenging. The high inflation rates have also raised the cost of food on the market, making it unaffordable to a poor Malawian.
Annie Kaliati, a Microfinance specialist, shared in an interview that the situation is challenging, since El Nino brings drought conditions that affect crop yields, which means that people will harvest low quantities of yields. The water table will be low as well, which will affect the irrigation systems, thereby affecting overall harvests.
This will cause a cost push inflation as there will be a price increase in daily commodities.
She added that Agri-businesses affected by El Niño can consider several strategies in order to survive this harsh condition in the future.
“Agri-businesses should consider other strategies such as crop rotation, securing insurance coverage for crop losses, employing drought-tolerant crop varieties, exploring alternative income streams, as well as utilizing efficient irrigation methods and practicing water conservation techniques, so it can be used for irrigation when the drought spells come” she said.
A report by Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), indicated that the expected below-average 2024 harvests will be exhausted earlier than usual, leading to comparably high food assistance in deficit producing areas of Zimbabwe, Southern Malawi, Mozambique, and Southern Madagascar.
The research by Centre for Agricultural Research and Development (CARD), however, highlighted strengthening border controlling mechanisms to monitor food grain exports during and after the El Nino, since neighboring countries will equally be hit by the same effects, a development we are yet to see if it will be implemented.
Meanwhile, Blessings Wilfred, an agricultural extension worker under Machinga Agricultural Development Division (ADD), which is one of the affected districts by the El Nino, shared that they are on a campaign of encouraging farmers to plant drought resistant crops like cassava and also engage in irrigation farming.
“With the current situation and now that the rain season is going to an end, we are advising farmers to focus on irrigation in order for them to be food secure. It could also be wise for the government to distribute affordable inputs to the farmers to help in the production” he said.
With the dry spell still ongoing, the hunger threat is real and a lot of people are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance. The government and its partners are working to provide food aid, cash transfers, and other interventions to the most vulnerable households, but the resources are limited and the needs are high.
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